Zak Butters domino: How AFL's biggest trade could turn Pick 1 and the draft upside down

The spectre of Tasmania at the top of next year's draft was expected to somewhat soften the trading of early 2026 picks.

Instead, an array of top-10 selections are on the table this year, according to CODE Sports reporter Jon Ralph.

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The Devils have been handed Picks 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11 and 13 for the 2027 national draft. Picks 5, 7, 11 and 13 must be traded to other clubs for either players or other draft picks.

On top of that, Tassie can pre-select up to 12 17-year-olds across 2026 and 2027 before they become draft eligible.

With the Devils poised to snap up the top players of a star-studded class next year, the expectation was clubs were unlikely to surrender 2026 first-rounders.

But speaking on Fox Footy's Midweek Tackle on Tuesday night, Ralph said several clubs were willing to part with selections, meaning trade period could be more chaotic than first expected.

"We heard all about Tasmania, 'no one's going to give up first-round picks because Tasmania comes in next year'. And yet when you talk to clubs out there, so many of them are prepared to make moves," he told Midweek Tackle.

Ralph then broke down the trade plans and potential moves for clubs with early picks this year.

IS PICK 1 IN PLAY?

Essendon, at this stage, holds Pick 1 with two rounds left in the home and away season, thanks to its 2-19 record.

There's a chance the Bombers usurp 17th-placed Richmond if they beat 15th-placed Port Adelaide in Round 24. But if they don't, they want the first overall selection come November.

It'd give the Bombers first choice in an intriguing open draft pool. They would have first call on high-leaping, athletic 204cm prospect Harry Van Hattum, who's been dubbed a potential generational ruck with huge AFL potential due to the new centre ball-up rules.

Then there's exciting Sandringham Dragons forward-midfield young guns Gus Teixeira and Arki Butler, as well as GWV Rebels midfielder Ethan Drever - arguably the best and most well-rounded on-baller in the open pool.

Things would change, though, if superstar free agent Zak Butters became available to the Bombers, according to Ralph.

"Essendon wants to take Pick 1 to the draft," Ralph said. "They want to take six picks in, let's say, (the top) 30.

"But if they got Zak Butters - if he was interested (in joining the Bombers) - they'd give away Pick 1 in a heartbeat."

The Bombers, too, could use Pick 1 to bid on Port Adelaide NGA young gun Dougie Cochrane, who's widely regarded as the best prospect in the 2026 draft class.

Port Adelaide, meanwhile, holds Pick 4 after Round 22. But that selection would almost certainly be wiped on draft night by an inevitably early bid for Cochrane - unless trades are struck beforehand.

THE BUTTERS DOMINO

Butters, who's widely expected to leave Port Adelaide, looms as the central figure in this year's off-season, with his free agency call to potentially spark a domino effect.

As the 25-year-old is a restricted free agent, the Power will strongly consider matching the rival-club offer he ultimately chooses.

For months, Butters was widely tipped to nominate the Western Bulldogs as his preferred destination.

But Geelong has remained confident of its chances of luring the on-baller, while Richmond and, more recently, Collingwood are also in the conversation with their more financially lucrative offers.

"There are list bosses today who will tell you that Richmond is in the box seat for Zak Butters," Ralph said.

"It seems preposterous to me given he's a Bulldogs fan, he loves Marcus Bontempelli, lives so close to Whitten Oval. But their view is what Zak Butters has said to Port Adelaide is that 'you need to win from this deal' - and you won't win from a deal at Geelong or Collingwood or even the Western Bulldogs. He has said: 'I will assuage my guilt by getting to a club like Richmond.'

"Now that is of course the Port Adelaide narrative because they want those other clubs to pony up. But the Tigers would give up Pick 2 and more for Butters in a heartbeat.

"He's not a 28-year-old free agent. He'll play at 26, so he's got seven or eight years ahead of him and how would you think that the Bulldogs will be any better?"

But, as Ralph suggested, this is where "it gets interesting".

While they'd lose a genuine superstar in Butters, there are several levers the Power could pull to ensure they secure Cochrane, as well as a star open-pool prospect, at the sharp end of the draft.

"There are so many ways that Port Adelaide can secure Pick 1," Ralph said.

"They can accept Pick 5 as compensation for Butters, who'd go anywhere. Then you've got (Picks) 4 and 5. You'd trade them to Essendon wouldn't you? So would Essendon go 4 and 5 for 1? Maybe.

"You can let him go, but trade him to Richmond for Pick 2. Then you can say: 'OK, we've got Pick 2, we do a deal with Essendon that you don't bid on Dougie Cochrane early'. So you get two players or you flip your picks - whatever it is, you get two of the best three players in the draft. That is a massive win."

MORE TOP-10 CHAOS

Elsewhere, West Coast is again tipped to target top talent at the draft.

The Eagles across the past three drafts have used top-30 picks on Harley Reid, Archer Reid, Bo Allan, Jobe Shanahan, Willem Duursma, Cooper Duff-Tytler, Josh Lindsay and Sam Allen.

Ralph said West Coast fans should expect more of the same in November.

"You look at the Eagles, they want three picks within 25," he said.

"They'll get an extra pick when they push back down the order through the matching of a (bid) selection."

Melbourne, because of the Christian Petracca trade last year, holds Gold Coast's first-round selection, which is currently Pick 5. That's on top of its natural first selection, which is Pick 13 at this stage.

But Ralph said the Demons, who've taken seven top-15 players across the past four drafts, aren't wedded to using both selections in November.

"The Demons are there with the Gold Coast pick. They have two first-round picks right now and they are very open to trading them both for a Bailey Humphrey-type," Ralph said.

"Why wouldn't you want to go and play under Steven King right now? Imagine if they get Calsher Dear and Bailey Humphrey?"

And, like the Demons, North Melbourne is "very open" to trading its first selection (currently Pick 6) "for a key-position defender".

"A Jacob Weitering-type? I don't think the Blues would do it, I think they'd be mad to do it. There's the Nick Murray types floating around," Ralph said.

"I think Jordan Ridley is too expensive from a salary cap point of view. He's got three years on a deal of maybe $800,000 or more. Essendon's going to price that really highly in terms of the trade period. I think he's going to be the unluckiest man in football. He's going to have to stay at that football club."

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